Afraid to Trade Blog - Latest Comments in Confusion in the Market: How to Understand

Re: Confusion in the Market: How to Understand

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Re: Confusion in the Market: How to Understand

Corey — Tue, 12 Jun 2007 20:32:02 -0000

Thanks Brian!

There are so many advantages to purely technical or purely mechanical trading systems. You have objective targets, entries, exits, and the mental confusion of the "why" is virtually absent. Trying to predict the market is difficult if not impossible. It really comes down to following a system - discretionary or mechanical (or combo) - with a positive edge.

Re: Confusion in the Market: How to Understand

Brian — Tue, 12 Jun 2007 19:48:59 -0000

Corey,

Very good post! As you know, I trade with systems, so I just let the computer tell me what to do. This helps quiet the noise, and let's me tune out all the stuff that I can make up in my head about what I think the market is going to do.

Brian

Re: Confusion in the Market: How to Understand

Stephen — Mon, 11 Jun 2007 22:27:55 -0000

Thats why you just keep trading as usual. Trade what you see, and the probabilities of your setups should remain static.

Re: Confusion in the Market: How to Understand

Corey — Mon, 11 Jun 2007 17:50:53 -0000

Joe,

I have not conducted extensive optimization on the parameters for the input, but typically will use 3 months for short-term analysis of recent trends and 6-months for intermediate or larger flow. The larger th time frame, the later the signals but the more significant the 'flow'.

Weekly chart analysts and position traders may do well with the one-year chart. I'm looking forward to your insights and results.
Thanks Joerg!

Re: Confusion in the Market: How to Understand

Joe — Mon, 11 Jun 2007 14:25:49 -0000

Corey,

What is the best look back period to determine sector strength? - I know you proposed using 3 months when you described the methad with prohet.net. Have you ever conducted an optimization in this area? Is 3 months better or three weeks?
I'll probably be able to conduct an optimization tonight (and will post the results here), but would be very interested in your experience.

Sorry for hijacking this thread...

Thanks, Joerg