DISQUS

Afraid to Trade Blog: Pulte Homes – A Massive Recovery

  • gary · 1 year ago
    I'll point out that the HGX had a powerful counter trend rally in 06 of roughly 35%. That was hardly the end of the bear market in housing though as we've seen this year. The financials are now experiencing that same counter tend rally. The troubles in the financial sector is hardly over yet. It usually takes at least a couple of years to clean out all the excesses. I seriously doubt the financials are out of the woods yet just because the Fed has lowered rates. All the Fed has really accomplished is to make the situation much worse in the long run by now piling on the fuel for spiking inflation.
  • Trader · 1 year ago
    At this rate of recovery, it is not surprising to see another round of pull back in near future.

    We have to be prepared..... it is now a Trader's game rather than an Investor's game.
  • Corey Rosenbloom · 1 year ago
    Gary,

    True, and I'm a major bear in the market, but I try to stay open to the signals the market is providing. I've discussed this with a couple of other traders and they feel the same way you do, as do I, but I did want to point out this rotation is a signal against the overwhelming bearishness that is awash in the market.

    Inflation is on the rise, and we have seen gold futures make new highs along with other commodity based futures, and the US Dollar Index is on a course to make more new lows.

    We're not out of the woods yet, not by any means, but for the moment (however long that last), the sector rotation model as I interpret it is sending a bullish signal.

    Thank you for your comment.
  • Corey Rosenbloom · 1 year ago
    Trader,

    I'm with you 100%. This is currently a counter-trend move, and investors are being slaughtered. Many have already sold out of their positions, and are agonizing at the recent upwards swing in the overall market.

    As a trader, volatility is what we crave. Unfortunately, this same volatility makes investors sick. Some traders are even getting sick.

    All the best!
  • Ben Bittrolff · 1 year ago
    I've updated my post and charts: Fed CHANGES Really Scary Fed Charts

    Removing TAF makes a significant difference.

    $50 billion to be exact.

    TAF operations are ongoing. So this discrepancy would just continue to grow.

    LIBOR is also starting to misbehave, again. Nothing too serious yet (not like before Christmas) but you get my drift. Stress is creepying back into the system.

    The (counter trend) rally in risky assets should just about be over, if I've interpreted this correctly.

    TheFinancialNinja